How Rare is Rare? — Playing the NFT lottery with Neolastics.

Neolastics.com is a digital art project that can automatically mint and burn unique, psuedo-randomly generated Mondrian inspired cubes of collectible digital art. What sets this NFT project apart is its bonding curve where you can mint at an incrementing price, and a reward for burning pieces. But one question remains, how rare is rare? And are those elusive green squares the goal? Or is there something even more elusive waiting to be uncovered. A full house equivalent better than 4 of a kind? And how much gas do I need to mine it?

Lets find out, shall we?!

Rules of the Game

  • 99.5% of the price is kept in the bonding curve reserve. 0.5% goes to the creator.
  • There exists 6 colours, with white, black, red, blue, and yellow being equally likely (~20%).
  • Green is rare (~1/256).
  • The colours are chosen from a psuedo-randomly generated 32 byte hash.
  • A maximum of 10,077,696 (6⁹) potential combinations can thus exist.

The elusive Green Square

1 green = ~1/29

Putting a price on rarity

Fixed gas cost = burn (68,792 wei) + mint (190,912 wei)
Bonding curve cost = 0.5%
At a gas price of 100 wei and token price of 0.5 ETH

1 Green = ~1/29
= 29 x (0.0217 ETH+ 0.5% 0.5ETH ) + 0.5 ETH
= 1.2 ETH ( 2.4x premium)

Or something more difficult, like a full house?

Full house = ~1/1162
= 28.6 ETH ( 57x premium )

Looking for Gems

5+ of a Kind

Neolastics: 5 of a kind

This would be if there were a number of the same color, not including green (we’ll get to that later)

4 of a kind = ~1/3
5 of a kind =~1/12
6 of a kind =~1/72
7 of a kind =~1/678
8 of a kind =~1/10850
9 of a kind =~1/390625

Green Combos

4 of a kind + green.

Combos

Full House

Full house 6:3 — Currently on sale for 32 ETH ($36,500)

Full house — 2 Colours

5:4 = ~1/775
6:3 = ~1/1,162
7:2 = ~1/2,712
8:1 =~1/10,850

Gas cost for the Black/Yellow Full house (6:3)
= 1162 x (gas+ 0.5%)
= 28.6 ETH ( 57x premium @ 100 wei, 0.5 ETH/token)

Now its selling for 32 ETH, a bit above its premium price, but if the collection grows, as will the bonding curve price, or gas prices, it will become more expensive to mine this pattern.

Ultra Rare

Connected squares

Full house 5:4 with a 1/775 chance

Thanks for getting this far. Shout out to Lana Ivina for helping with the calcs. If you mint a Neolastic and it’s not an ultra rare, take solace that every single pattern is unique and a lot of this is subjective. I hope this has been a fun experiment for NFTs, good luck collecting, and I look forward to seeing what new patterns emerge!

About The Project:

In November 2016, I proposed the idea of creating an autonomous artist that sells its own generative art using an early version of what would become bonding curves. A year later, I had a more concrete proposal in summoning an autonomous artist that tasked a crowd to curate a generator. In an attempt to compress these ideas into a simple MVP, I formulated a new version that directly tied newly minted pieces directly onto a bonding curve. Since then, NFTs, Generative Art, and Bonding Curves have increased in popularity and it’s time push ahead in these ideas. Thus, Neolastics seek to create a simple art project whereupon generative art is backed by a bonding curve economy. If successful, this could continue the aim of building a fully autonomous artist: eventually leading to one that even has its own ‘mind’.I’m a huge fan of Mondrian’s Neo-Plasticism art and it served as inspiration for the kind of generative art I wish to see. Hat tip to Clovers.Network for pushing the boundaries of a generative art + bonding curve economy.

About The Artist:

See my other art projects here: https://blog.simondlr.com/art.
Swing me a follow on Twitter!
@simondlr.

Website:

https://neolastics.com/

https://opensea.io/collection/neolastics